Verdict is in. NAR "gets it"

A long long time ago (like October,) the National Association of REALTORS announced their plans to hire a Social Media Manager.  The job posting was quickly noticed by a broad range of REALTORS who were actively engaged in SM already, and Twitter and Blogs were abuzz.

Lots of talk on the blogs was skeptical, some cynical, some hopeful.  There was some chatter about it at the NAR Convention in Orlando (including some late night pontification between Aaron Wheeler of Oakville Properties and myself.)  To be quite honest, I gave consideration to applying for the position myself.  What stopped me?  Well, the way I saw it, this position could be one of two things:

A menial, mid-level position that paid a ho-hum wage, got carted out for shows, toed the company line and generally didn't have room for a big personality (OK, maybe that should read ego) like mine.  Not my cup o' tea

OR NAR would go for 

A "Player," well established in SM, networking and tech, with established ties to the "Twitterati" and top voices in the RE Blogsphere.  Someone who had already set up shop at the intersection of technology, networking, and real estate.  I'm not that guy either- I get it, but I haven't innovated, I don't blog regularly enough, haven't learned all the cutting edge tools in webcasting (like RealEstateZebra Daniel Rothamel), developed a kick ass resource/online shrine to my community (like Ines Hegedus-Garcia did with Miamism) or mastered the direct transcranial uplink (like Real Estate Shows Pres Jeff Turner.)

Well the cat's out of the bag, and NAR did it right.  They hired a Ninja, to use Todd Carpenter's own term.

Now I've never met Todd.  I've been following him on Twitter for quite a while, and feel like I know him a little, which is to say I know his reputation amongst people I respect, I know he doesn't take himself too seriously, he works out regularly (sadist) and has great taste in music (thanks blip.fm)

This hire and my reaction to it illustrates the importance and value of Social Media/Social Networking for businesspeople.  I don't know Todd in real life, but I still feel like I know him.  I feel confident he can do the job, and do it very well.  I think the people who hired him are smart, and I look forward to meeting him in person and doing "business" with him.

Isn't that what any of business person would want their future customers to feel about them?

Embracing Winter

Winter is definitely making a big deal of itself here in Northern Michigan this year.  Lots of snow (though not too much lately) and really cold temps have been de rigueur.  I've long been a believer that the best way to make it through the cold and snowy days of winter is to embrace it, get out and enjoy it.  I ski with my kids even though I really don't enjoy it that much by myself, on account of abusing my knees in the past and not being the best skier to start with.  I ride snowmobiles, ice fish a little, and of course theres sledding and snow forts with the kids too.

We've got events coming up in the area to make winter more fun, too.  The second weekend of February (14th this year) is Winterfest on Crystal Lake in Beulah.  There is a softball tournament on the ice, fishing tournaments, a parade and fireworks, among other events.  This is a long standing event that I can remember attending as a kid.  In particular I recall racing down the lake on my old snowmobile with a perch in my pocket trying to make the deadline for the fishing contest.  I made it, but the perch wasn't quite as big as I thought it was.

The following weekend, Frankfort is holding a brand new event called Shiver by the River.  In addition to their own parade, games and fun, there also will be a snowcross race, right in town in what's known as "goose park".  This isn't a couple of guys on their old Rupps, but a real live snowcross race event.  Should be lots of excitement.

See you on the snow!

Twitter and pickup lines

I've heard Social Media venues compared to a coffee house or a bar, but it really struck me how deep the parallels are recently.

Case in point: I was reviewing my recent followers on Twitter and deciding whether or not to follow them back and was pleased to discover that one of them, whom I'll call Twit#1, lives not too far from me. Super! I'm in an out of the way sort of place, and always am pleased to find people nearby tweeting, so locals are pretty much an automatic follow. Right after following Twit #1, however, I get a Direct Message asking "Have you ever considered a Home Based Business Opportunity." Whoa! I don't even know you yet! Can't we get to know each other a little bit first?

Now, I should have seen this coming... If I would have looked deeper into their twit stream, I'd have seen this single theme coming up over and over. But Twit #1 (and by now you know who you are if you're reading this) could get a lot farther by recognizing that Social Media is a great tool to create relationships that evolve into business opportunities. Instead I got the feeling that they only wanted to sell me something.

Now juxtapose that with the response I got from @nik_nik after following her:

Woohoo! Thanks for following Matt! I made this video so you'd know what you're getting yourself into! http://tinyurl.com/8wdsfg

I hope you click the link, because Nicole (see, I know her real name already) deserves to be outed for what she is: A charming, smart person who isn't afraid to ham it up a little, and who wants to get to know me personally. She's into sharing ideas, listening to your opinion and telling you what she thinks too. She blogs, digs technology and real estate, and likes music.

Let's take this back to my pickup line analogy, and imagine I'm at Bob's Business Bar:
Me: Hi, I'm Matt
twit#1: Wanna hook up?

Me: Hi, I'm Matt
@nik_nik: Awesome to meet you! Doesn't this band rock? These are my other friends... care to join our conversation?

Now who are you going to start a relationship with?

Look! Over there!

I started another blog dedicated to some of the best deals I come across in my local real estate market. I'm calling it UnReal Deals, and believe me some of these deals are unreal. To check it out you can go to www.UnRealDeals.blogspot.com

UnReal Deals

I keep coming across great deals in our marketplace, and have been sharing them with friends on Twitter and Facebook. I'm going to start posting them here as well, where I can tell a bit more about them.

Prices for homes have taken a hit, and with current mortgage rates in the 5% range, the values are outstanding. Unfortunately for me, I can't buy them all, so I'll share the information. The listings I'll talk about will not be limited to my own inventory. If I see a great deal that is someone else's listing, I'll tell you about it.

I'll start off with a home I just listed for a bank. It's a 3 bedroom, 2 bath 1970's manufactured home on 5 very nice wooded and rolling acres. It has a full basement and a large deck, and is very close to the new Douglas Valley Organic Vineyard Community, where lots alone are offered starting at $129,000.

It's also close to Little River Casino, the Manistee River, Lake Michigan, Portage Lake and Onekama.

This house sold in 2004 for over $100k. It's now available for just $34,900. Here's a link to more information.

Watch for falling mortgage rates

Fannie Mae's intraday MBS yield is falling sharply, which means that mortgage rates will likely follow. The drop is significant, and likely is in part tied to the new Treasury plan to buy Mortgage Backed Securities.

If you've been thinking of buying, you would be wise to talk with your lender for a rate quote. A drop in rates increases your purchasing power, and with the incredible values that are on the market right now, you may find you can get a whole lot more for your dollar than you would have just a few months ago.

Homeowners who may have been considering a refi should also consider taking action now.

In other words, real estate is on sale, and mortgage money is going on sale too! That's something for which we can be thankful!

Greetings from your rogue agent

From: Steve

Sent: Thursday, November 13, 2008 11:20 AM

To: Matt@2cases.com

Subject: greetings from your rogue agent


Hi Matt,

I'm first writing to apologize for my lack of participation and communication with the office. I have been in contact with Kathy for some extensions but that's about it. I will make an effort to get to some meetings and be more involved.

It's been a disappointing year to say the least. I had such high hopes that we would get some real buyer activity down here, but it didn't happen. I had showings,(not as many as I would have expected), but offers were slow to come. I was also hopeful that the new development nearby would bring traffic, but it hasn't yet. I'm optimistic going forward because Frankfort and Benzie County is still poised for growth, I just know it's going to take time. I'm not recommending major price reductions to my sellers because I don't sense that is the reason we're not getting traffic. (A couple listings are down 10%+ and still no offers). If I had some desperate sellers, it would be a different story but I don't. I think we're fairly priced here compared to the market...we just need more buyers.

The tourism trade has been strong and I expect it will continue, despite the economy. We just need some help from the overall economy and downstate home sales to help stimulate 2nd home purchases up here. It will happen...hopefully sooner than later.

Thanks and I'll talk to you soon.

Steve



Hi Steve,

Rogue agent... I like it. Nice hearing from you. I don't know that I'll concede that if you don't have any desperate sellers they don't need to reduce their prices. We've seen median sale prices drop 9.7% in Benzie County YTD, and a total of 13% since 2006. If that trend continues, the gap between your sellers prices and the market will widen. You and they need to be aware of that risk.

Total sales are down 21% YTD in Benzie County, so you're right that we need more buyers. Their return is dependant on a lot of things: increased confidence, increased liquidity in MBS, availability of credit, the stock market and how TARP and housing stimulus are implemented all will play a factor. We're building pent up demand, but need some significant triggers to release that demand.

On the positive side of things, we're seeing early indicators of a recovery in our industry, especially here in NW Michigan. It appears that supply is beginning to tighten, with the number of new residential listings down 19.3%year to date in the TAAR MLS, and building starts way down as well.

Another leading indicator of a turn around is a recovery in number of transactions. Last Friday at the NAR Convention in Orlando, Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that housing sales show signs of turning in Michigan, driven by affordability. The rebound of sales units will precede the rebound in prices or sales volume, and I believe it will precede it by at least 12-18 months.

The good news is that while home sales (for the MLS as a whole) are down 11.4% year to date, when we look at October 08 vs October 07 we're only down 1.3%. That means that October was a huge improvement vs. the year overall. In fact, Benzie County actually posted an 8% gain in October!

It's been a heck of a bumpy year, and the economy and stock markets have scared a lot of buyers out of the water. While the words "we're from the government and we're here to help" strike fear in my heart, I know that NAR is actively advocating for prudent stimulus and relief that will aid homeowners and home buyers. I'm very pleased that they have attacked the deficiencies which I felt were inhibiting the use of the current home buyer stimulus package.

The current offering calls for the $7500 to be paid back over 15 years, and it is restricted to first time home buyers only. I feel that to be effective the $7500 credit should not be required to be paid back, but more importantly that the credit should apply to all buyers of a primary residence, regardless of whether or not they currently or recently owned a home.

In the mean time we're building pent up demand. I spoke with one of our regions largest home builders tonight, and he's sold about 43 units this year. He stated that he fully expects that when our market breaks free, he'll do 200 units the first year. A normal good year for him is around 100 units.

I'm always here if you want to talk strategy.

Matt