Fannie Mae's intraday MBS yield is falling sharply, which means that mortgage rates will likely follow. The drop is significant, and likely is in part tied to the new Treasury plan to buy Mortgage Backed Securities.
If you've been thinking of buying, you would be wise to talk with your lender for a rate quote. A drop in rates increases your purchasing power, and with the incredible values that are on the market right now, you may find you can get a whole lot more for your dollar than you would have just a few months ago.
Homeowners who may have been considering a refi should also consider taking action now.
In other words, real estate is on sale, and mortgage money is going on sale too! That's something for which we can be thankful!
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Greetings from your rogue agent
From: Steve
Sent: Thursday, November 13, 2008 11:20 AM
To: Matt@2cases.com
Subject: greetings from your rogue agent
Hi Matt,
I'm first writing to apologize for my lack of participation and communication with the office. I have been in contact with Kathy for some extensions but that's about it. I will make an effort to get to some meetings and be more involved.
It's been a disappointing year to say the least. I had such high hopes that we would get some real buyer activity down here, but it didn't happen. I had showings,(not as many as I would have expected), but offers were slow to come. I was also hopeful that the new development nearby would bring traffic, but it hasn't yet. I'm optimistic going forward because Frankfort and Benzie County is still poised for growth, I just know it's going to take time. I'm not recommending major price reductions to my sellers because I don't sense that is the reason we're not getting traffic. (A couple listings are down 10%+ and still no offers). If I had some desperate sellers, it would be a different story but I don't. I think we're fairly priced here compared to the market...we just need more buyers.
The tourism trade has been strong and I expect it will continue, despite the economy. We just need some help from the overall economy and downstate home sales to help stimulate 2nd home purchases up here. It will happen...hopefully sooner than later.
Thanks and I'll talk to you soon.
Steve
Hi Steve,
Rogue agent... I like it. Nice hearing from you. I don't know that I'll concede that if you don't have any desperate sellers they don't need to reduce their prices. We've seen median sale prices drop 9.7% in Benzie County YTD, and a total of 13% since 2006. If that trend continues, the gap between your sellers prices and the market will widen. You and they need to be aware of that risk.
Total sales are down 21% YTD in Benzie County, so you're right that we need more buyers. Their return is dependant on a lot of things: increased confidence, increased liquidity in MBS, availability of credit, the stock market and how TARP and housing stimulus are implemented all will play a factor. We're building pent up demand, but need some significant triggers to release that demand.
On the positive side of things, we're seeing early indicators of a recovery in our industry, especially here in NW Michigan. It appears that supply is beginning to tighten, with the number of new residential listings down 19.3%year to date in the TAAR MLS, and building starts way down as well.
Another leading indicator of a turn around is a recovery in number of transactions. Last Friday at the NAR Convention in Orlando, Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that housing sales show signs of turning in Michigan, driven by affordability. The rebound of sales units will precede the rebound in prices or sales volume, and I believe it will precede it by at least 12-18 months.
The good news is that while home sales (for the MLS as a whole) are down 11.4% year to date, when we look at October 08 vs October 07 we're only down 1.3%. That means that October was a huge improvement vs. the year overall. In fact, Benzie County actually posted an 8% gain in October!
It's been a heck of a bumpy year, and the economy and stock markets have scared a lot of buyers out of the water. While the words "we're from the government and we're here to help" strike fear in my heart, I know that NAR is actively advocating for prudent stimulus and relief that will aid homeowners and home buyers. I'm very pleased that they have attacked the deficiencies which I felt were inhibiting the use of the current home buyer stimulus package.
The current offering calls for the $7500 to be paid back over 15 years, and it is restricted to first time home buyers only. I feel that to be effective the $7500 credit should not be required to be paid back, but more importantly that the credit should apply to all buyers of a primary residence, regardless of whether or not they currently or recently owned a home.
In the mean time we're building pent up demand. I spoke with one of our regions largest home builders tonight, and he's sold about 43 units this year. He stated that he fully expects that when our market breaks free, he'll do 200 units the first year. A normal good year for him is around 100 units.
I'm always here if you want to talk strategy.
Matt
Sent: Thursday, November 13, 2008 11:20 AM
To: Matt@2cases.com
Subject: greetings from your rogue agent
Hi Matt,
I'm first writing to apologize for my lack of participation and communication with the office. I have been in contact with Kathy for some extensions but that's about it. I will make an effort to get to some meetings and be more involved.
It's been a disappointing year to say the least. I had such high hopes that we would get some real buyer activity down here, but it didn't happen. I had showings,(not as many as I would have expected), but offers were slow to come. I was also hopeful that the new development nearby would bring traffic, but it hasn't yet. I'm optimistic going forward because Frankfort and Benzie County is still poised for growth, I just know it's going to take time. I'm not recommending major price reductions to my sellers because I don't sense that is the reason we're not getting traffic. (A couple listings are down 10%+ and still no offers). If I had some desperate sellers, it would be a different story but I don't. I think we're fairly priced here compared to the market...we just need more buyers.
The tourism trade has been strong and I expect it will continue, despite the economy. We just need some help from the overall economy and downstate home sales to help stimulate 2nd home purchases up here. It will happen...hopefully sooner than later.
Thanks and I'll talk to you soon.
Steve
Hi Steve,
Rogue agent... I like it. Nice hearing from you. I don't know that I'll concede that if you don't have any desperate sellers they don't need to reduce their prices. We've seen median sale prices drop 9.7% in Benzie County YTD, and a total of 13% since 2006. If that trend continues, the gap between your sellers prices and the market will widen. You and they need to be aware of that risk.
Total sales are down 21% YTD in Benzie County, so you're right that we need more buyers. Their return is dependant on a lot of things: increased confidence, increased liquidity in MBS, availability of credit, the stock market and how TARP and housing stimulus are implemented all will play a factor. We're building pent up demand, but need some significant triggers to release that demand.
On the positive side of things, we're seeing early indicators of a recovery in our industry, especially here in NW Michigan. It appears that supply is beginning to tighten, with the number of new residential listings down 19.3%year to date in the TAAR MLS, and building starts way down as well.
Another leading indicator of a turn around is a recovery in number of transactions. Last Friday at the NAR Convention in Orlando, Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that housing sales show signs of turning in Michigan, driven by affordability. The rebound of sales units will precede the rebound in prices or sales volume, and I believe it will precede it by at least 12-18 months.
The good news is that while home sales (for the MLS as a whole) are down 11.4% year to date, when we look at October 08 vs October 07 we're only down 1.3%. That means that October was a huge improvement vs. the year overall. In fact, Benzie County actually posted an 8% gain in October!
It's been a heck of a bumpy year, and the economy and stock markets have scared a lot of buyers out of the water. While the words "we're from the government and we're here to help" strike fear in my heart, I know that NAR is actively advocating for prudent stimulus and relief that will aid homeowners and home buyers. I'm very pleased that they have attacked the deficiencies which I felt were inhibiting the use of the current home buyer stimulus package.
The current offering calls for the $7500 to be paid back over 15 years, and it is restricted to first time home buyers only. I feel that to be effective the $7500 credit should not be required to be paid back, but more importantly that the credit should apply to all buyers of a primary residence, regardless of whether or not they currently or recently owned a home.
In the mean time we're building pent up demand. I spoke with one of our regions largest home builders tonight, and he's sold about 43 units this year. He stated that he fully expects that when our market breaks free, he'll do 200 units the first year. A normal good year for him is around 100 units.
I'm always here if you want to talk strategy.
Matt
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Honoring our Veterans
A lot of what I learned about honor, I learned from my parents. Today I'm thinking about a lesson I learned from my dad, and it's about honoring our Veterans.
Dad didn't actually teach me this lesson himself. I learned this lesson from my dad via his very good friend, Theo. Theo is much like a second dad (or sometimes an older brother) to me. Theo served in Vietnam, and carries the toll that the war took on him to this day as he fights the early onset of Parkinson's disease.
In College, I took a course on the history of the Vietnam war one fall semester, and as luck would have it, Theo and I spent time together that fall traveling to hunting camp. Just he and I in a dark truck on a cold night, going somewhere we loved to go. We talked about his experiences and what I'd learned. About wild times in his past and about love and friendship.
And then Theo told me that when he returned from Vietnam my father showed up at his door to thank him for his service. And that my dad was the only one that made it a point to thank him for many many years.
Every year on Veterans Day, I make it a point to thank whomever I know who has served our country in time of war. I'll start making phone calls as soon as I collect myself after writing this, as I could not make it through this post without tears welling up in my eyes and my nose starting to run.
I was touched by comments the Joe Theismann made yesterday when he spoke at a conference I attended. I happened to be videotaping at the time, and have posted that video on YouTube.
I'm extremely fortunate not to have lost a loved one in a war. But I'm even more fortunate to live freely, happily and safely in this wonderful experiment in democracy known as America.
Have you thanked a veteran lately?
Dad didn't actually teach me this lesson himself. I learned this lesson from my dad via his very good friend, Theo. Theo is much like a second dad (or sometimes an older brother) to me. Theo served in Vietnam, and carries the toll that the war took on him to this day as he fights the early onset of Parkinson's disease.
In College, I took a course on the history of the Vietnam war one fall semester, and as luck would have it, Theo and I spent time together that fall traveling to hunting camp. Just he and I in a dark truck on a cold night, going somewhere we loved to go. We talked about his experiences and what I'd learned. About wild times in his past and about love and friendship.
And then Theo told me that when he returned from Vietnam my father showed up at his door to thank him for his service. And that my dad was the only one that made it a point to thank him for many many years.
Every year on Veterans Day, I make it a point to thank whomever I know who has served our country in time of war. I'll start making phone calls as soon as I collect myself after writing this, as I could not make it through this post without tears welling up in my eyes and my nose starting to run.
I was touched by comments the Joe Theismann made yesterday when he spoke at a conference I attended. I happened to be videotaping at the time, and have posted that video on YouTube.
I'm extremely fortunate not to have lost a loved one in a war. But I'm even more fortunate to live freely, happily and safely in this wonderful experiment in democracy known as America.
Have you thanked a veteran lately?
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Would you like my autograph?
I got a nice little plug on the 11:00 news last night. TV 7&4 (NBC) contacted me yesterday afternoon about buyer activity and the market. The reporter, Courtney Rehmer, was looking for a local tie in to the NAR figures for September. I spent a solid half hour with her at one of my listings in Beulah.
I'm very proud to have bumped politics and Barack Obama's infomercial Blitz from the top billing, as I was the lead story! http://tinyurl.com/6r5b66
They didn't use everything that Courtney shot, but I think it turned out quite well. Some of the information that was left "on the cutting room floor" included:
That while closed units were down 11% Year to Date in the region, September was off just 4% over last year, indicating we're closing the gap.
That inventory levels are shrinking, and the ratio of listings taken to listings sold has improved dramatically.
That we're at or near the bottom price wise.
After the interview I got to thinking, and emailed Courtney that "There is one more thing that occurred to me, and that is that we do not need more foreclosed homes on the market, or more people displaced from their homes by foreclosure. Please encourage viewers to take action if they are having trouble making their payments. For the most part, banks do not want to take their homes and should be willing to work with them. There are resources available, especially if they act quickly. If they're having troubles with their lender they can contact the TAAR office or ask a REALTOR for guidance."
While it was trimmed off of the end of the video posted online, I was glad that this was included in the news report. In fact they used it as a segue to some extent, and followed up with advice from financial advisers that they've had answering viewer calls this week.
Good deals are out there, as well as some great ones. For buyers who are making a sound financial decision, and are buying for the long term (5 years as opposed to 1) it is a great time to buy.
It was fun having the opportunity to do the interview, and I've gotten quite a few comments on Facebook and via text from friends and colleagues.
I'm very proud to have bumped politics and Barack Obama's infomercial Blitz from the top billing, as I was the lead story! http://tinyurl.com/6r5b66
They didn't use everything that Courtney shot, but I think it turned out quite well. Some of the information that was left "on the cutting room floor" included:
That while closed units were down 11% Year to Date in the region, September was off just 4% over last year, indicating we're closing the gap.
That inventory levels are shrinking, and the ratio of listings taken to listings sold has improved dramatically.
That we're at or near the bottom price wise.
After the interview I got to thinking, and emailed Courtney that "There is one more thing that occurred to me, and that is that we do not need more foreclosed homes on the market, or more people displaced from their homes by foreclosure. Please encourage viewers to take action if they are having trouble making their payments. For the most part, banks do not want to take their homes and should be willing to work with them. There are resources available, especially if they act quickly. If they're having troubles with their lender they can contact the TAAR office or ask a REALTOR for guidance."
While it was trimmed off of the end of the video posted online, I was glad that this was included in the news report. In fact they used it as a segue to some extent, and followed up with advice from financial advisers that they've had answering viewer calls this week.
Good deals are out there, as well as some great ones. For buyers who are making a sound financial decision, and are buying for the long term (5 years as opposed to 1) it is a great time to buy.
It was fun having the opportunity to do the interview, and I've gotten quite a few comments on Facebook and via text from friends and colleagues.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Correction
I submitted a correction to The Traverse City Business News recently, as I noted an error in a story on the real estate market. Gayle Neu was quick to respond with apologies and a promise that they'd address it. Whether it's stories on new businesses, the real estate market, or being included in their annual 40 under 40 feature, I really enjoy working with Gayle and the crew at TCBN, and know that the error was innocent and not an attempt to spin the news to the negative.
At any rate, the information is worth sharing here.
To the Traverse City Business News,
I noticed the article titled "Traverse City real estate: alive and (relatively) well" by Bill Wheadon in your October 2008 issue. I wish to point out an error in the labeling of the data, as well as provide some additional information that may clarify the figures reported. While I will address my home market of Benzie County specifically, I believe the error to be the same for all areas, though how that changes the assumptions which were made will vary.
In the chart provided, sales information is reported as being thru July. The data is actually for the month of July alone, NOT year-to-date through July. Thus, this is a one month sample of what is occurring in the market. Small samples are inherently less accurate for deriving a mean (or average) than a large sample, a fact which I believe is illustrated in the % change indicated.
A search of YTD sold data for all property types (Residential, Vacant, Commercial and MultiFamily) in the Traverse Area Association of REALTORS MLS shows that through September 30th, the number of sales in Benzie County decreased by 33%, while the median price fell from $122,000 to $115,000, a drop of 5.7%.
As much of the focus is on what is happening in the Housing Market, I have been tracking Residential Sold data separately. Year to date in Benzie County through September 30th, I find that the number of residential sales has fallen from 179 to 134 (-25.1%) and median prices have fallen from $155,000 to $132,500 (-14.5%)
While our region is seeing a decline in home prices, we continue to outperform most if not all of the state. The availability of mortgages at low interest rates (yes, mortgages are still available, and with favorable terms,) increased affordability of homes, the forecast growth expected for our region, the desirability of the area including quality of life, and the impact of the baby boom generation will continue to make the Grand Traverse region one of the best areas in Michigan to purchase real estate. Buyers who act now are making exceptionally good deals, and we are seeing some owners choosing to take advantage of the market to move up into a larger home. Inventory is beginning to tighten, with less new inventory coming onto the market and the ratio of Listings Taken to Listings Sold for September at 3.06/1, a much healthier ratio, and vast improvement from its peak of 5.78/1 in January of 2007.
Attached is the data from which the statistics on sales were drawn. Please let me know if I can be of further assistance.
Sincerely yours,
Matt Case
Associate Broker, Director of Support Services
Coldwell Banker Schmidt REALTORS
President, Traverse Area Association of REALTORS
At any rate, the information is worth sharing here.
To the Traverse City Business News,
I noticed the article titled "Traverse City real estate: alive and (relatively) well" by Bill Wheadon in your October 2008 issue. I wish to point out an error in the labeling of the data, as well as provide some additional information that may clarify the figures reported. While I will address my home market of Benzie County specifically, I believe the error to be the same for all areas, though how that changes the assumptions which were made will vary.
In the chart provided, sales information is reported as being thru July. The data is actually for the month of July alone, NOT year-to-date through July. Thus, this is a one month sample of what is occurring in the market. Small samples are inherently less accurate for deriving a mean (or average) than a large sample, a fact which I believe is illustrated in the % change indicated.
A search of YTD sold data for all property types (Residential, Vacant, Commercial and MultiFamily) in the Traverse Area Association of REALTORS MLS shows that through September 30th, the number of sales in Benzie County decreased by 33%, while the median price fell from $122,000 to $115,000, a drop of 5.7%.
As much of the focus is on what is happening in the Housing Market, I have been tracking Residential Sold data separately. Year to date in Benzie County through September 30th, I find that the number of residential sales has fallen from 179 to 134 (-25.1%) and median prices have fallen from $155,000 to $132,500 (-14.5%)
While our region is seeing a decline in home prices, we continue to outperform most if not all of the state. The availability of mortgages at low interest rates (yes, mortgages are still available, and with favorable terms,) increased affordability of homes, the forecast growth expected for our region, the desirability of the area including quality of life, and the impact of the baby boom generation will continue to make the Grand Traverse region one of the best areas in Michigan to purchase real estate. Buyers who act now are making exceptionally good deals, and we are seeing some owners choosing to take advantage of the market to move up into a larger home. Inventory is beginning to tighten, with less new inventory coming onto the market and the ratio of Listings Taken to Listings Sold for September at 3.06/1, a much healthier ratio, and vast improvement from its peak of 5.78/1 in January of 2007.
Attached is the data from which the statistics on sales were drawn. Please let me know if I can be of further assistance.
Sincerely yours,
Matt Case
Associate Broker, Director of Support Services
Coldwell Banker Schmidt REALTORS
President, Traverse Area Association of REALTORS
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Air Time
I went "on air" to talk about the Grand Vision last Friday, when I was a panelist of sorts on Interlochen Public Radio's Points North. Jim Maitland from the Grand Traverse Road Commission, Jim Lively from the Michigan Land Use Institute and I had a discussion with Peter Payette. Here's a link to the interview.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Where do we go from here?
I spent Sunday afternoon with my wife and kids, along with my sister, enjoying fall in Northern Michigan. First we went in search of a cider mill and fresh donuts, and found our way to The Covered Wagon near Lake Leelanau. I say found the way, because we worked from memory as opposed to maps in making our way through the Leelanau Peninsula.
Next we visited Jacobs Corn Maze, just a bit west of Traverse City on M-72. I've wanted to do a corn maze for a while, and was excited to hear that one was open in our area. Mike and Laverna Witkop and Steve and Lisa Fouch created a great recreational asset for our community, and we had a blast. Garrison and Jared (8 and 6) ran 90 percent of the time in the maze which means they put on several miles at a trot. Nathan at 2 1/2 tried to keep up, but also delighted in riding on grown up shoulders- "go fast! Go fast!"
Using the map provided and being able to read it was critical in getting through in a timely fashion. It would have easily taken us twice as long (if not more) had we not used the map. We quickly settled into a pattern. Kids run ahead with instructions to stop at any intersection. "Which way do we go?" and off they run again. Great fun.
Now I sit here wondering where we go from here once again, as the Economic Stabilization Act was defeated, the Dow plummeted, and debate (and finger pointing) rages on. I've been having mixed feelings on the defeat- I'm a fiscal conservative, but understand that the risk of doing nothing is significant. I had only the broadcast news interpretation of the Act, which provided little substance, and having heard enough spin on it, I decided to try to learn more.
After brushing through several news sites, I decided to turn to my professional association, and visited the National Association of REALTORs website at REALTOR.org. There I found a summary of the act written from the REALTOR point of view, speaking to the REALTOR community. This summary gave me a deeper understanding of facets of the bill. Here's a look at that document: http://tinyurl.com/4ghbho
Whether this act was the best possible solution will never be answered to everyones satisfaction. I firmly believe, however, that dramatic action is needed to address the credit crisis, and it is needed soon. Political infighting and rhetoric will serve no one, nor will placing blame for how we got here. May our Representatives and Senators be blessed with open minds, clear insight, and the strength to unite in action.
Next we visited Jacobs Corn Maze, just a bit west of Traverse City on M-72. I've wanted to do a corn maze for a while, and was excited to hear that one was open in our area. Mike and Laverna Witkop and Steve and Lisa Fouch created a great recreational asset for our community, and we had a blast. Garrison and Jared (8 and 6) ran 90 percent of the time in the maze which means they put on several miles at a trot. Nathan at 2 1/2 tried to keep up, but also delighted in riding on grown up shoulders- "go fast! Go fast!"
Using the map provided and being able to read it was critical in getting through in a timely fashion. It would have easily taken us twice as long (if not more) had we not used the map. We quickly settled into a pattern. Kids run ahead with instructions to stop at any intersection. "Which way do we go?" and off they run again. Great fun.
Now I sit here wondering where we go from here once again, as the Economic Stabilization Act was defeated, the Dow plummeted, and debate (and finger pointing) rages on. I've been having mixed feelings on the defeat- I'm a fiscal conservative, but understand that the risk of doing nothing is significant. I had only the broadcast news interpretation of the Act, which provided little substance, and having heard enough spin on it, I decided to try to learn more.
After brushing through several news sites, I decided to turn to my professional association, and visited the National Association of REALTORs website at REALTOR.org. There I found a summary of the act written from the REALTOR point of view, speaking to the REALTOR community. This summary gave me a deeper understanding of facets of the bill. Here's a look at that document: http://tinyurl.com/4ghbho
Whether this act was the best possible solution will never be answered to everyones satisfaction. I firmly believe, however, that dramatic action is needed to address the credit crisis, and it is needed soon. Political infighting and rhetoric will serve no one, nor will placing blame for how we got here. May our Representatives and Senators be blessed with open minds, clear insight, and the strength to unite in action.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
